What determines how long Trump can fight? Missile stockpile

As Trump vowed “no ceasefire until goals are met,” multiple media outlets shifted focus to a more immediate constraint: how much longer missile and interceptor stockpiles can last.

According to CCTV News, U.S. President Trump delivered a video address on March 1, local time, stating that the U.S. and Israel will continue military action against Iran until all objectives are achieved. Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi declared the same day that Iran will decide when and how this U.S.-Israeli imposed war of aggression ends.

The latest media analysis states that whether the U.S. military, Israel, and Gulf Arab states can withstand retaliatory strikes from Iran “will depend on how many missile interceptors they have—and stockpiles are likely dangerously low.” The report says, “Typical military doctrine requires two to three interceptors to be fired at each incoming target to maximize hit probability.”

A person familiar with the situation said, “If the current intensity of Iranian attacks continues, interceptor stockpiles could face depletion within days.” The report also notes that on Saturday, “dozens or more Iranian missiles were intercepted in the region, but at least a few broke through.”

Kelly Grieco, senior fellow at the Stimson Center, commented: “Interceptor missiles are a big concern, especially anti-ballistic interceptors. We’re using them faster than we can manufacture them.”

High Defense Costs: THAAD about $15 million per missile

Air defense interception is not only a technical contest, but also a hugely expensive financial war.

Take THAAD, the most advanced land-based missile defense system in the U.S. arsenal, for example. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, during a 12-day conflict last June, the U.S. fired about 150 THAAD interceptor missiles. Produced by Lockheed Martin, each costs about $15 million, and only several dozen were procured last year.

Media also recalled that in April 2024, to fend off Iranian missile and drone attacks, “Israel along with U.S., UK, France, and Jordan air forces may have spent about $1.1 billion,” and that was just a few hours’ work.

Massive consumption is rapidly draining U.S. ammunition stockpiles. Media analysis points out that the consumption rate of THAAD, Patriot, and SM-3 missile systems by U.S. and allied forces far exceeds the replenishment rate. Meanwhile, precision-guided weapons like Tomahawk cruise missiles are also being used extensively.

Becca Wasser, senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, remarked, “The Trump administration has been launching Tomahawk cruise missiles (TLAMs) at an astonishing rate across global operations.”

U.S. military and allies “are burning through THAAD, Patriot, and SM-3 missile systems faster than they can be replenished,” while using “vast numbers of Tomahawk cruise missiles and other precision weapons,” which “will be crucial if another conflict arises elsewhere in the world.”

The report also notes: “The Pentagon’s air-defense interceptor stockpile—‘magazine depth’—exactly how much is classified.” However, it also says, “Repeated conflicts with Iran and its proxies have been depleting regional air defense reserves.”

Becca Wasser, senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, further commented: “The Trump administration fires TLAMs (Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles) at a remarkably high pace in global operations—against Iran and the Houthis in the Middle East, and even in Nigeria on Christmas Day.”

Defense sector shifts back to “restocking and ramping up production” narrative

Large-scale air raids and subsequent air defense interceptions are turning Wall Street’s attention “toward U.S. ammunition stockpiles” and are said to “strengthen Wall Street's focus on U.S. defense companies,” with investors more likely to pay attention to the need for “accelerated weapons production.”

Investors are starting to assess whether ongoing conflict will force defense companies to speed up weapons manufacturing. U.S. defense-related stocks, which have been trading sideways since mid-January, may face a new potential catalyst.

Former Israeli Defense Forces spokesperson Jonathan Conricus told The Wall Street Journal he “so far is not impressed with the number of missiles Iran can launch,” but he stressed: “Ultimately it comes down to the numbers: how many interceptors we have, and how many launchers the other side can deploy and fire.”

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