What signal? China Nonferrous Metals Association is researching the inclusion of "copper concentrate" in national reserves.

China is exploring the inclusion of copper concentrate, an upstream raw material, in its national strategic reserve system. This marks a shift in policy thinking regarding the security of the copper industry supply chain, moving from single reserves of refined copper to multi-level, multi-variety reserves.

On February 3, Duan Shaofu, Deputy Secretary General of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, stated at a press conference that in addition to reserve refined copper, consideration could also be given to including copper concentrate—with large trading volume and easy liquidation—within the reserve scope. At the same time, the national copper strategic reserve scale will be expanded, and the exploration of commercial reserve mechanisms will continue, including pilot implementation of commercial reserves through interest subsidies for selected major state-owned enterprises.

This stance sends a clear policy signal. Copper is a strategic resource closely tied to the nation's livelihood and economic development. As the world’s largest consumer and producer of refined copper, China is relatively short of copper mine resources and highly dependent on overseas imports. Since the third quarter of 2023, copper concentrate processing fees have declined, and long-term processing fees in 2025 remain at historically low levels, placing continued production reduction pressure on domestic high-cost smelters.

Analysts believe that including copper concentrate in the reserve scope means China is taking a more forward-looking defensive measure for ensuring the supply security of the copper industry chain. This not only helps strengthen bargaining power at the raw material end, but also provides domestic smelters with more stable raw material supply guarantees, which is of positive significance for stabilizing the operation of the industrial chain.

Accelerating Reserve System Construction

At the press conference, Duan Shaofu clarified two main paths to improving the copper resource reserve system: On one hand, expand the national copper strategic reserve scale; on the other hand, explore commercial reserve mechanisms, selecting major state-owned enterprises to pilot commercial reserves through means such as fiscal interest subsidies.

According to data released by the association, China’s nonferrous metal industry is expected to maintain a strong growth momentum in 2025. According to CCTV Finance, in 2025, the industrial added value of nonferrous metal enterprises will grow by 6.9%, which is 1.0 percentage point higher than the growth rate of national large-scale industrial added value. The output of the ten major nonferrous metals will exceed 80 million tons for the first time, reaching 81.75 million tons, up 3.9% from last year, with an average annual increase of 5.0% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.

According to the association’s forecast, the operation of the nonferrous metal industry will maintain stable growth in 2026. The first quarter will continue the good momentum from the end of last year, achieving a strong start for the 15th Five-Year Plan. Provided there are no “black swan” events, the preliminary expectations for key indicators of the nonferrous metal industry in 2026 are:

In terms of production, stable operation will continue. The added value of the nonferrous metals industry is expected to increase by about 5% year-on-year. According to the characteristics of nonferrous metals production and capacity building, the output of ten commonly used nonferrous metals in 2026 is expected to rise by about 2% year-on-year.

In terms of prices, industrial silicon and lithium carbonate prices are expected to stabilize and recover in 2026. The prices of major nonferrous metals like copper and aluminum will remain volatile at high levels. Industry revenue growth may reach 5%, with a slight increase in profits.

Continued Policy Support

The research into copper concentrate reserves is not an isolated initiative, but rather a continuation of a series of industrial policies. At a press conference hosted by the State Council Information Office on July 18, 2025, Tao Qing, spokesperson for the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and director of the Operations Monitoring and Coordination Bureau, stated that the next step will be to continue implementing the high-quality development plans for copper, aluminum, and gold industries, and release a new round of work plans to stabilize growth in the nonferrous metal industry.

Policy efforts focus on two aspects: stabilizing growth and promoting transformation. For stabilizing growth, emphasis is placed on supply and demand coordination, strong guarantees through efficient resource utilization, improved supply through advanced processing materials, and expanding demand by upgrading bulk consumption and cultivating emerging consumer markets. For promoting transformation, the government encourages innovation in new nonferrous metal materials and green low-carbon processes, and is building a batch of green mines, green factories, and green industrial parks.

In February 2025, eleven departments—including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission—jointly released the Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Copper Industry (2025—2027), which clearly states that newly built copper smelting projects must, in principle, be matched with the corresponding proportion of equity copper concentrate capacity. This is equivalent to strictly controlling new domestic copper smelting capacity, and will help bring copper concentrate processing fees back to reasonable levels.

Ongoing updates…

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