When being the "chief trader" is no longer enough, is Trump going to personally "run the show"?
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Trump is upgrading his influence on financial markets from posting and shouting orders online to direct involvement. The U.S. president, dubbed "Chief Trader" by outsiders, is now preparing to truly "open shop" through his company—venturing into the prediction markets business.
According to the latest media reports, Trump Media & Technology Group announced on Tuesday that it will launch a prediction market service called Truth Predict on its social media platform Truth Social, in cooperation with Crypto.com. This service will allow users to bet on outcomes of events relating to sports, entertainment, politics, and economic trends, and is planned for global rollout after meeting regulatory requirements.
The timing of this move is quite subtle. In recent years, Trump himself and his family members have been repeatedly questioned over stock price fluctuations and suspected insider trading. From stock surges before family members joined companies, to Trump calling "buy" before tariff policy changes, a series of events has made market observers highly sensitive to trading activities related to his camp.
Prediction markets are becoming one of the hottest new tracks on Wall Street. According to research platform Dune, last week prediction market trading volume hit a historic high of over $2.3 billion. NYSE parent Intercontinental Exchange just invested $2 billion in Polymarket, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange plans to launch related contracts by year-end. The entry of traditional financial giants is pushing this once "digital casino" marginal market into the mainstream.
Truth Predict: From "Social Platform" to "Prediction Market"
This foray by Trump Media & Technology Group into prediction markets continues its deep binding strategy with the cryptocurrency industry.
The company will launch the prediction market service in cooperation with cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com, via its Truth Social platform, streaming platform Truth+, and fintech brand Truth.Fi. The service will first launch in Beta on Truth Social, then fully roll out across the United States. Trump Media plans to expand to global markets after meeting all necessary requirements.
Prediction markets allow users to profit by forecasting outcomes of events in sports, entertainment, politics, and economic trends. Since last year's U.S. presidential election, event-based contract trading has gained strong momentum. With rising market attention, prediction markets are being seen as powerful contenders for broader financial recognition, and some experts believe they offer more accuracy than traditional polls in fiercely competitive scenarios.
Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek stated: "Prediction markets are expected to become a multi-billion-dollar industry." This is not the first collaboration between the two parties. Earlier this year, Trump Media and Crypto.com reached a deal with a SPAC to launch a new joint venture that employed Treasury-like strategies to accumulate native CRO tokens of the crypto exchange, further deepening Trump’s ties to the crypto industry.
Kalshi and Polymarket, the two largest global prediction market platforms, have attracted significant attention from VCs and other investors in recent months, consolidating prediction markets’ coverage and engagement.
The Shadow of the "Chief Trader": Insider Trading Suspicions Linger
As Trump’s camp enters the prediction market, questions about trading anomalies among his family and affiliated companies have never ceased.
In recent years, a series of companies linked to Trump and his inner circle have seen unusual trading activity before major personnel or policy announcements, sparking concerns about market manipulation and insider trading.
One of the most attention-grabbing events was when the U.S. stock market swung violently over tariff policy. About four hours before announcing a tariff hike suspension, Trump posted in all caps on his social platform Truth Social: "THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT." While DJT is his name’s initials, it’s also the stock code for Trump Media. That day, DJT shares closed up 22.67%, and the value of Trump’s holdings reportedly increased by $415 million.
Similar situations have arisen multiple times. In November last year, before drone maker Unusual Machines announced hiring Donald Trump Jr., its share price nearly tripled in the four weeks prior, with average daily trading volume surging from 93,000 to 290,000 shares. This February, fintech group Dominari Holdings, headquartered in Trump Tower, saw its stock skyrocket 580% in the six weeks before Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump joined its advisory board.
These suspicions are not isolated. Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has close ties to Trump, as well as family members of former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, have also drawn attention for their "well-timed" trading moves. These events continue to ferment, fueling ongoing suspicion that the Trump camp is leveraging information advantages to sway the market.
Prediction Market Frenzy: From "Digital Casino" to Wall Street's New Favorite
Trump’s entry comes as prediction markets are transforming from a niche concept into Wall Street’s new darling. According to research platform Dune, last week global prediction markets’ weekly trading volume hit a new all-time high above $2 billion.
Popularity is rapidly translating into valuations, with emerging platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi leading the charge. Polymarket, a crypto-based platform, has reportedly reached a valuation nearing $15 billion after a $2 billion strategic investment from NYSE parent Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Kalshi, the first U.S.-regulated event contract exchange (CFTC-licensed), has gone viral for real-time mayoral race odds displayed on screens in New York, and its cultural impact has even extended into the popular cartoon "South Park."
Traditional financial giants are already in play: the world’s largest derivatives exchange, Chicago Mercantile Exchange is planning to launch financial contracts linked to sports events and economic indicators by year-end. Along with ICE’s investment in Polymarket and Nasdaq’s asset tokenization explorations, all signs point to prediction markets and their underlying tokenization tech moving from the margins to the center of the financial system.
Against this backdrop, Trump’s "Truth Predict" is no longer just a celebrity’s side business, but a strategic move into a rapidly growing, increasingly mainstream new financial track. As Wall Street’s "regular armies" march into the field, Trump—bringing his own traffic and controversy—clearly has no intention to miss out on this feast.
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