When Pop Mart squeezes out the “bubble” — From “Establishing a Super IP” to “Becoming a Global Evergreen”

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Standing at the time node of 2026 to examine Pop Mart, investors must abandon their previous stereotypical impression of its "blind box bubble".

A research report by Guolian Minsheng Securities on February 10 pointed out that the market's perception of the company is undergoing a qualitative leap: evolving from a simple "blind box company" to a "global IP full-industry chain group". For investors, the core impact is the complete switch in valuation systems—the company is no longer just a retail channel operator, but now has the potential to be benchmarked against international IP giants such as Disney and Sanrio.

The report predicts that the company’s total revenue in 2026 will break through 51 billion RMB, with adjusted net profit reaching 18 billion RMB. The logic behind this performance explosion is not short-term speculation, but based on active supply chain management, deep penetration in the North American market, and substantive expansion of IP monetization boundaries. Based on IP growth flexibility and global scarcity, the report gives it a 23 PE for 2026, corresponding to a target market value of 414 billion RMB.

The Truth Behind the Labubu Heat Decline: Healthy Clearance and Family Moat

Concerns about the recent decline in Google Trends and North American social media popularity of the core IP Labubu are defined by the report as "healthy clearance" rather than a crash signal. This is fundamentally different from the previous “Bean Doll” bubble. The decline in Labubu’s popularity is the result of the company’s active regulation, aimed at squeezing out the inflated secondary market bubble through refined layered supply. Data shows that in the second half of 2025, the company’s plush toy production capacity increased tenfold year-on-year, breaking 30 million units in August. This supply-side optimization successfully guided prices back to rational levels, laying the foundation for long-term healthy growth.

More importantly, Labubu's lifecycle is being extended through a "family strategy". Benchmarking Tokyo Disney’s Duffy family, Pop Mart builds its IP universe by introducing characters like ZIMOMO and MOKOKO. In January 2026, the company unveiled THE MONSTERS’ ten-year anniversary product, covering 10 family IP members, proving its ability to increase per-customer value through multi-character infiltration. Even after the popularity adjustment, Labubu's search index remains five times that of KAWS and comparable to Doraemon, signaling its smooth transition from "phenomenal hit" to "global evergreen IP".

Industrialized Star-Making Capability Verified: Starman Taking Over and IP Team Iteration

The "single tree cannot support the forest" concern of investors has been addressed; the company has established a replicable industrialized IP incubation system.

Aside from the top IPs, the new IP squads show strong performance, especially “Starman” which joined only a year ago. Different from Labubu’s social-driven rise, Starman rapidly emerged through “healing” emotional resonance and strong channel momentum (such as prime store displays).

Data shows that in just the first half of 2025, Starman IP revenue reached 390 million RMB, proving Pop Mart's ability to mass produce medium-sized IPs, forming a matrix complementary to Labubu and ensuring continuous iteration and performance relay of product teams.

North American Market Breakthrough: From Single Store Trials to Cluster Operations

The North American market is becoming the new growth engine for the company, and its expansion strategy has shifted from initial single-point trials to mature "clustered deployment". The report analyzes that Pop Mart is using an Apple- and Pandora-like location selection logic, estimating the long-term store potential between 270 and 550 stores. The current layout is strikingly strategic, such as dense store openings in Houston and Florida, forming regional penetration.

Localization of the management team is the core guarantee of strategy implementation. The company has recruited local senior managers such as Justin Moon with backgrounds at CJ Group and Lotte, and others with retail experience at Lovisa and Sunglass Hut, constructing a highly retail gene-driven organizational structure. Through a three-dimensional network of “flagship stores + core stores + channel stores” with a plan to double store numbers in 2026, the North American market is expected to contribute 13.5 billion RMB in revenue in 2026, becoming the key engine for global growth.

Europe and New Business: Cultural Export and High-Frequency Consumption Scene Construction

Expansion in the European market focuses more on brand tonality building and cultural export. In the first half of 2025, revenue from Europe and other regions grew by 729% year-on-year, reaching 478 million RMB. The company binds with art landmarks like the Louvre and Pompidou and establishes a European headquarters in London to radiate into France, Italy, and other key markets. Future plans include seven new stores in the UK (Oxford Street flagship included) and 20 stores across Europe, further enhancing market coverage density.

Meanwhile, the company is extending IP monetization to higher frequency and higher ticket fields via two new business lines, POP BAKERY (desserts) and POPOP (jewelry). POP BAKERY’s 39-199 RMB pricing cuts into everyday social scenes, while POPOP’s 249-2699 RMB affordable luxury jewelry elevates brand value. These new businesses not only enrich the IP consumption experience, but also synergistically drive traffic with the main business, further exploring the lifetime value of 50 million members.

In summary, the report is highly optimistic about Pop Mart’s earnings growth in 2026. It is expected that the company’s total revenue will reach 51 billion RMB, with adjusted net profit of 18 billion RMB, a 22% year-on-year increase. This growth comes not only from the improved store efficiency in China, but also from explosive growth overseas—the overseas income is expected to reach 25 billion RMB in 2026, nearly half of total revenue. With in-depth global layout and mature new business, Pop Mart is completing a magnificent transformation from trend toy merchant to global IP business empire.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market has risks, investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it consider the special investment objectives, financial status or needs of specific users. Users should consider whether any opinion, viewpoint or conclusion in this article suits their particular situation. Invest accordingly, and bear responsibility for the results. ```