When will the Strait of Hormuz reopen? G7 allies are not optimistic; a senior US official says that a significant increase in shipping may take two weeks, and a return to pre-war levels will take even longer.

The gap between U.S. commitments and allied expectations makes the prospect of reopening this globally critical energy corridor highly uncertain.

According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. President Trump said on social media on the 14th that with the signing of the U.S.-Iran agreement on Friday, June 19, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen for mine-clearing operations. However, U.S. European allies generally have reservations about this timetable. Reports say that during the G7 summit held this Monday in Évian-les-Bains, France, the G7 found it difficult to reach a common position on how to handle the strait situation, and the prospects for issuing a joint communiqué seem equally bleak.

Even within the Trump administration, senior officials' statements differ noticeably from Trump's own. According to U.S. media on Monday, a senior U.S. official stated that shipping volume in the strait will gradually rise, with any obvious increase possibly taking up to two weeks, and returning to pre-military action levels—before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February this year—will require more time. The official also pointed out that there are still mines in the strait that need clearing, and shipping companies differ in their risk tolerance for passage.

These disagreements directly affect market expectations for a normalization of energy supply. The Strait of Hormuz typically carries about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, and delays in its reopening process will continue to affect oil and gas market sentiment.

Text of U.S.-Iran Agreement Not Yet Public, Differences in Statements Remain

Although both the U.S. and Iran say a temporary agreement has been reached to reopen the strait, their descriptions of the agreement's content are not consistent without an official document being released.

According to a senior U.S. official, the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran will stipulate that the strait will be open and toll-free to passing ships for 60 days, and the U.S. will demand that this clause be included in the final agreement. The official said the signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday in Switzerland, and Vice President Vance may represent the Trump administration.

As for the timing of the final text's release, Trump said "as early as this weekend," while another senior U.S. government official said "within the next two days,"—the statements are inconsistent.

Notably, a person familiar with the discussions told U.S. media that oil industry leaders have repeatedly conveyed their position to the White House and the Trump administration over several months: permitting "passage fees" for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is unsustainable for the U.S.

The same source said the White House is clear on the industry's position. This means that the previously taken-for-granted right to free passage has now become a matter for negotiation, and the relevant talks have not even officially begun.

Allies Set Conditions, Mine Clearance Operations Face Practical Challenges

At the G7 summit, although European allies expressed willingness to participate in mine-clearing and patrolling the strait, all attached preconditions and showed concern about operational complexity.

Italian Prime Minister Meloni stated that Italy’s participation depends on a ceasefire in Lebanon—as Israeli troops have recently been conducting military operations in Lebanon. German officials warned that direct participation requires international authorization, and the whole process may have to be measured in weeks rather than days. A G7 official told U.S. media that the countries have serious disagreements on how to respond to Iran, making a joint communiqué unlikely.

Previous reports indicated that any European military deployment will hinge on the formal restoration of full, unimpeded commercial navigation rights via a finalized U.S.-Iran agreement, and on the creation of an authorized environment for military operations in the strait. French President Macron and UK Prime Minister Starmer have already spearheaded allied coordination efforts, with more than 15 countries currently committed to providing equipment and personnel.

As leader of the host country for this G7 summit, Macron stated, "We are ready to shoulder our responsibilities."

Number of Mines Unclear, Clearance May Be Protracted

The threat posed by mines in the strait is one of the key variables affecting the reopening process, but even the number of mines is not yet determined.

Iran has repeatedly claimed to have laid mines in this narrow waterway. In mid-March, the UK indicated signs that Iran had indeed laid mines, while the U.S. at the time held the opposite view.

Caitlin Talmadge, associate professor of political science at MIT, said confirming safety in the strait will be a complex undertaking. She pointed out that if Iran can provide information about the locations of the mines, the clearance speed will increase significantly; European countries have considerable mine-clearing capacity, but once hostile action resumes, the relevant ships will be extremely vulnerable.

Talmadge said: "Mine-clearing operations should be conducted in a permissive environment. If Iran resumes attacks, the ships and personnel involved will be at risk, especially specialized mine-clearing vessels—which typically lack self-defense capabilities."

Trump stated this Monday in Évian-les-Bains, "Ships are already starting to set sail, and by Friday it will be fully open," downplaying the current mine-clearing efforts as "found a few mines, did some searching," which sharply contrasts with allied officials and technical experts’ assessment of the situation's complexity.

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