While raiding Maduro, betting on prediction markets! US military personnel accused of “insider trading,” earning $400,000.

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A U.S. Army Special Forces soldier has been sued by federal prosecutors for participating in a secret operation to arrest Venezuelan leader Maduro, and using confidential information he obtained to profit by betting on prediction markets.

According to CCTV News, the U.S. Department of Justice confirmed on April 23 local time that U.S. Army Special Forces Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who participated in the forced control and transfer of Venezuelan President Maduro, was indicted for allegedly betting with this information and making a profit of over $400,000.

On April 23, according to The Wall Street Journal, 38-year-old active-duty Army Special Forces Sergeant Van Dyke was charged with commodities fraud and wire fraud at the Manhattan federal court on Thursday. Prosecutors allege Van Dyke used confidential information regarding the arrest operation of Maduro to bet accurately on the prediction market platform Polymarket that Maduro would lose power before the end of January, eventually making a net profit of $409,000 from about $33,000 in principal.

Manhattan federal prosecutor Jay Clayton described the case as "clear insider trading" and said this conduct "violates federal law." Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche also stated that military members obtain confidential information to accomplish missions as safely and effectively as possible, and "it is strictly prohibited to use such highly sensitive information for personal financial gain."

The report also noted that the case has drawn attention from the market: During the Trump administration, prediction markets became a tool for some traders to profit from policy fluctuations, ranging from tariff shifts to military actions, as people sought arbitrage opportunities.

From Confidential Briefings to Precision Bets: 13 Trades Lock in Operation Window

According to CCTV News, it is reported that in the weeks prior to January 3, Van Dyke used sensitive confidential information to bet on Polymarket that U.S. forces would enter Venezuela and that Maduro would step down. On January 3, Van Dyke also uploaded photos involving sensitive information to an online account.

According to court documents, on December 8 of last year, Van Dyke received a confidential briefing on the plan to arrest Maduro and signed a confidentiality agreement promising never to disclose relevant information by "writing, speaking, actions, or in any other way."

However, according to reports, Van Dyke subsequently made 13 consecutive bets on Polymarket through a newly registered account between December 27 and January 2, betting that the U.S. would take action against Maduro. This concentrated series of bets from a new account quickly aroused suspicion of insider trading.

Hours after Van Dyke made his last bet, U.S. Special Forces entered Caracas and arrested Maduro at his and his wife’s residence. The high coincidence of this timing became one of the key pieces of evidence for prosecutors’ accusations.

Covering Tracks: Transferring Funds to Overseas Accounts, Requesting Record Deletion

The case shows that after completing the trades, Van Dyke tried to cover the flow of funds.

According to reports, Manhattan federal prosecutor Jay Clayton pointed out that after making a profit, Van Dyke transferred most of the proceeds to an overseas cryptocurrency account and requested Polymarket to delete his account information.

Polymarket stated that the platform has policies to combat insider trading. "When we find users trading with government confidential information, we refer the matter to the Department of Justice and fully cooperate with the investigation," the company said on X.

In addition to criminal prosecution, according to CCTV News, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has also filed a civil lawsuit against Van Dyke.

It is noteworthy that during the Trump administration, the CFTC actively advocated for the value of prediction markets. This civil lawsuit against the soldier in question demonstrates regulators’ heightened attention to the issue of insider trading in prediction markets.

Prediction Market Regulation: Emerging Tools Face Compliance Scrutiny

This case brings to the forefront the question of compliance boundaries for prediction markets. Prediction markets allow traders to bet on outcomes of financial, political, and sports events and are regulated under derivatives trading laws in the U.S. Polymarket, meanwhile, operates an offshore platform offering broader contract trading.

According to reports, during the Trump administration, traders frequently used prediction markets such as Polymarket to profit from everything from sudden tariff policy changes to military strike actions.

Jay Clayton previously stated that he expected to take enforcement action regarding trades that clearly benefit from insider information, and this prosecution is the implementation of that stance.

Acting Attorney General Blanche emphasized, "The widespread popularity of prediction markets is a relatively new phenomenon, but federal laws protecting national security information are fully applicable."

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