Who will take the baton after gold? Citi’s outlook for 2026 favors platinum group metals, driven by industrial substitution and valuation recovery.
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In 2026, Citi’s research team maintains a moderately positive outlook on global precious metals stocks, explicitly favoring platinum group metals (PGMs) over gold.
According to Chase Wind Trading Desk, Citibank stated in its latest research report that compared to gold, platinum group metals have better risk-return characteristics in 2026. The bank believes gold prices have stabilized near $4,000 per ounce, with balanced risk and return, while platinum and palladium possess upward-leaning potential.
Citi points out that platinum group metals have significantly underperformed gold prices over the past three years, with platinum trading at a large discount to gold—a rare phenomenon historically. Analysts believe that marginal substitution of gold with platinum in industrial demand may further support prices for platinum and palladium.
The report forecasts that current gold stock prices reflect an expected gold price of about $3,200 per ounce, a discount of more than 25% compared to spot prices, while platinum group metal stock prices reflect a basket price of about $1,220 per ounce, over 20% lower than spot prices.
Platinum Group Metals Show Clear Valuation Advantage
According to Citi Research, platinum group metals have notably underperformed gold over the last three years, and platinum is currently trading at a historically rare discount versus gold. The report suggests that, as industrial demand marginally shifts from gold to platinum, prices for platinum and palladium are likely to gain additional support.
Meanwhile, platinum group metal stocks are currently priced at $1,220 per ounce for the basket, more than 20% below spot prices, highlighting their valuation appeal. Historical data show that precious metal stock prices are closely correlated with the performance of the underlying commodities, with gold stocks having a fit (R²) of over 82% to gold prices in the past five years.
Analysts note that if spot prices remain at their current levels, stock prices could see upside driven by revaluation, creating opportunities for investors to enter the market at the present discounts.
Investor Sentiment Clearly Diverging; Potential for Reversal Expands in PGM Sector
Citi’s crowding score shows investor sentiment varies across precious metals subsectors. Gold stocks such as AngloGold and Fresnillo are classified as “consensus buy,” while platinum group metal stocks like Sibanye and Impala are marginally “consensus sell.”
This divergence in sentiment provides further upside for the platinum group metals sector, especially as fundamentals improve. Citi believes that as PGM prices recover and investors reassess the sector’s value, related stocks are likely to attract increased attention.
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The above content is from Chase Wind Trading Desk.
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