Will shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue into next year? Mitsui O.S.K. Lines warns: Recovery unlikely before the end of the year.

The prospects for the resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are becoming increasingly uncertain. With renewed tensions between the US and Iran, Mitsui OSK Lines, one of the world's largest tanker operators, has warned that the strait's return to normal operations may take much longer than previously expected, and hopes for normalization this year have significantly diminished.

"Given the current situation, it is difficult to foresee a return to normal operations in any form this year," Mitsui O.S.K. Lines CEO Jotaro Tamura said in an interview on Thursday. He also pointed out that the current level of risk is "far beyond what the company can accept," and the company has no plans to return to the Strait of Hormuz route at this time. Tamura said the company would only consider restarting the route after the situation has clearly deteriorated and there is assurance and evidence of sustainable safe passage.

This statement directly impacted market expectations for a recovery in Middle Eastern oil supplies. In recent weeks, as the number of "black ships" (illegible vessels) passing through the Persian Gulf increased, there were hopes for a gradual rebound in oil flows. However, the situation deteriorated again this week, posing a new threat to this fragile supply recovery momentum.

Shipping recovery faces further uncertainty; Japan accelerates development of alternative energy corridors.

In its quarterly earnings report last month, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines assumed that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would "gradually recover from October 2026 and normalize by January 2027." However, the sharp deterioration of the US-Iran situation this week has created greater uncertainty for this timeline.

Reports indicate that since the escalation of tensions this week, the number of observable vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted to just a handful per day. While the increase in clandestine vessel transits in recent weeks has, to some extent, helped more oil circumvent controls and flow out of the Persian Gulf, this latest round of tensions may once again deter some shipping companies.

As a major energy importer, Japan is actively addressing the supply risks posed by the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Reports indicate that Japan is developing a plan to diversify its energy imports, including provisions supporting the construction of Middle East pipelines aimed at encouraging oil exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and establishing alternative transportation routes.

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