Will Trump tariffs be decided next week? U.S. Supreme Court to announce a new batch of rulings on February 20

The U.S. Supreme Court will release a new batch of decisions on February 20, which means the fate of the Trump administration’s signature tariff policy could be determined as early as next Friday. If the decision overturns the relevant tariffs, it will be the greatest legal setback Trump has faced since returning to the White House, and will affect the more than $16 billion in monthly tariff costs currently paid by importers.

A report from this Friday, February 13, pointed out that the U.S. Supreme Court has set February 20, 24, and 25 as release dates for opinions. The tariff case is one of twelve pending cases that were argued in October or November 2025 but not yet decided. The case involves the so-called reciprocal tariffs announced by President Trump on April 2, 2025, as well as tariffs imposed on Canada and other countries for failing to effectively control illegal drug exports such as fentanyl.

The Supreme Court is reviewing the legality of Trump’s imposition of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977. Federal government data shows that these disputed tariffs cost importers more than $16 billion per month. Bloomberg economist Chris Kennedy estimates that by February 20, the total tariffs imposed under IEEPA could exceed $170 billion.

At the Supreme Court hearing on November 5, 2025, several justices from different factions expressed strong doubt as to whether the president has the unilateral authority to levy tariffs. Some key justices hinted they believe Trump overstepped his authority. At least a majority of the justices voiced reservations about the administration relying on the declaration of emergencies to implement unlimited global tariffs.

Increasing Congressional Challenge

As the Supreme Court announced its decision timetable, pressure on Trump’s tariff policy in Congress has intensified. On February 12, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives passed a bill aimed at ending certain tariffs on Canadian imports, approving the dissolution of the emergency declaration that provided legal justification for these tariffs.

This is the strongest political blow yet to Trump’s tariff policy. Six Republican House members defected at the last moment, joining all Democrats to support the bill. This underscores the increasingly fragile grip Trump has over the House, where Republicans hold only a slim majority.

Dan Newhouse, one of the defecting Republicans from Washington State, later stated: “Trade relations between Canada and Washington State are very close, with high import and export values. In my district, many Canadian employers hire large numbers of employees.”

Senate Republican leader John Thune said Thursday that he expects the Senate to vote on the House resolution to repeal the Canadian tariffs, “and the result may be the same.” The Republican-controlled Senate has previously voted to drop Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Brazil, and emergency global tariffs.

Commentators note that Trump will almost certainly veto any bill requiring the repeal of his tariff agenda, making it unlikely the resolution will become law, but the result of this vote shows that, ahead of the November midterms, anxiety over the White House’s economic agenda is escalating. Democrats quickly attacked Republicans who voted to protect the tariffs, accusing them of supporting policies that increase voters’ cost of living.

During the Wednesday night vote, Trump made it clear on social media that any Republican opposing him on this issue would face political consequences. He threatened: “Any Republican in the House or Senate who votes against the tariffs will suffer serious consequences in the election, including in the primaries!”

Midterm Election Pressure

The House vote on Wednesday itself represented a setback for Speaker Mike Johnson. As an important Trump ally in Congress, Johnson had for months led efforts to block tariff-related bills from being brought to a House vote. That ended on Tuesday, when three Republicans joined Democrats to refuse to extend the blocking measure again.

Johnson said afterward that he had met with Trump earlier on Wednesday, and that Trump understood he could exercise his veto power should the bill pass the Senate. “This does not really affect the trajectory of what he is doing,” Johnson added, “There is evidence his trade policies are working.”

Republicans are struggling to maintain control of both the House and Senate in November, but declining public support for the president on economic and immigration issues is making the task more difficult. In a series of recent elections, Democrats have outperformed expectations — including the Miami mayoral race, and the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia. In recent weeks, a secure Republican state Senate seat in Texas shifted to Democrats, giving them a 31-point swing advantage.

Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said: “Both chambers have now rejected his (Trump's) false ‘state of emergency’ and fabricated trade war. The Supreme Court should take note.”

As this measure was passed, Trump is privately considering withdrawing from the USMCA signed in his first term, a decision that would escalate North American trade tensions. About 80% of goods imported from Canada meet USMCA’s standards and are exempt from tariffs.

Timing of the Decision Remains Uncertain

There has been much speculation over when the Supreme Court will announce its ruling. This week, Adam Liptak, chief legal affairs correspondent for The New York Times, pointed out that many had previously believed the Supreme Court would announce the tariff case decision on January 9, 14, or 20, but none came to pass.

Liptak quoted the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg: “Those who know don’t talk, those who talk don’t know.” He recalled the Supreme Court’s 2012 decision on Obama’s health care law, when many expected a May 24 announcement but had to wait until June 28 — the very last day of the term.

The tariff case was given an expedited hearing on November 5, 2025, which in itself reflected the Court’s swift handling. Deputy Solicitor General D. John Sauer pleaded in September 2025 for the judges “to resolve the case as quickly as possible,” because the administration's defeat in appeals court had “cast a cloud of legal uncertainty over the president’s efforts to protect the country.”

But hearings revealed skepticism and divergence among members of the conservative majority. Major and challenging Supreme Court rulings in history are often only announced at the end of the term, in early July. The Supreme Court began to speed up last month, issuing six decisions, but these were all relatively minor cases, five of which achieved consensus at least on the basic judgment.

Liptak observed that the tariff decision will be a major statement on presidential powers, unlikely to have unanimous agreement. Although the case was heard early in the term and under expedited procedures, the decision might come soon, or it could be delayed until June. As the late Justice Ginsburg said: “Those who talk don’t know.”

The White House has said that if the tariffs are overturned, alternative legal tools will be used quickly, though Trump admitted replacements would be more cumbersome. Federal government data shows tariffs involved in the case cost importers more than $16 billion every month. Given the monthly cost of over $16 billion, the Supreme Court’s decision will have a substantial impact on importers and the broader economy.

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