With the strong sales of the iPhone 17, Apple will surpass Samsung to reclaim the position of the world's largest smartphone manufacturer.

Driven by the success of the new iPhone models, Apple is expected to surpass Samsung for the first time in over a decade and reclaim its position as the world’s largest smartphone manufacturer.

On November 25, media reports citing Counterpoint Research projected that the iPhone 17 series released in September this year has seen great success in both the US and another key market, China, attracting large numbers of consumers to upgrade their devices.

Apple’s iPhone shipments in 2025 will grow by 10%, while Samsung’s growth rate will be only 4.6%. By then, Apple will hold a 19.4% share of the global smartphone market, which overall is expected to grow by 3.3%. This would be Apple’s first time on top since 2011.

Apple also sent positive signals last month, stating that its sales growth exceeded expectations and that holiday quarter revenue may approach a record $140 billion, supporting optimistic forecasts from external institutions.

Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang pointed out that besides high recognition of the iPhone 17 series in the market, the key driving force for shipment growth lies in the turning point of the upgrade cycle.

Consumers who bought smartphones during the COVID pandemic are now entering the upgrade phase. In addition, from 2023 to Q2 2025, the market has sold a total of 358 million second-hand iPhones. These users may also upgrade to new iPhones in the coming years.

Besides strong upgrade demand, Apple also benefits from other macro factors.

Researchers added that easing global trade tensions and a weakening dollar boosting purchasing power in emerging markets have both contributed to Apple’s growth.

Looking ahead, Wang expects Apple to further expand its lead. The upcoming foldable iPhone in 2026, along with the budget model iPhone 17e, will both help boost sales growth.

According to previous Bloomberg reports, Apple is expected to undertake a major design overhaul of the iPhone in 2027.

With these favorable conditions, Counterpoint forecasts that Apple will maintain its position as the world’s largest smartphone vendor through 2029.

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