Without using force, relying solely on diplomacy, can Britain and France open the Strait of Hormuz?

As the crisis of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to escalate, the UK and France are jointly advancing a multilateral effort centered on diplomatic means, attempting to reopen this global critical energy artery without resorting to force—but the road ahead is full of uncertainties.

According to CCTV News, French President Macron said on the 2nd local time that it is "unrealistic" to "liberate" the Strait of Hormuz through military action. Macron also stated, the military actions of the US and Israel against Iran are "not our actions," and these actions are "decided alone by the Americans and Israelis." Latest reports show that a container ship, the "CMA CGM Kribi," showing French nationality, has exited the strait, possibly being the first known Western European-connected vessel to pass through since the Middle East conflict erupted. The ship broadcast its location information publicly throughout the journey and sailed close to the Iranian coast.

Meanwhile, British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper hosted an online meeting on Thursday attended by about 40 countries, with all parties calling for the "immediate and unconditional reopening" of the strait. Reports indicate that the UN Security Council may vote on a relevant draft resolution as early as Friday.

The blockade of the strait has already caused a significant impact on global energy markets—crude oil prices have surged, and diesel prices in Europe have hit their highest level in four years. Although European countries like the UK and France are not involved in the war, they are bearing heavy spillover costs, with the economic outlook for the continent clearly under pressure as a result. How far this multilateral diplomacy will go remains uncertain. Iran's demands, the direction of the Security Council vote, and how to offer Trump a respectable "exit" without escalating the conflict will determine the ultimate success or failure of these efforts.

Diplomatic Offensive: 40 Nations Jointly Call, Security Council May Vote

Yvette Cooper convened an online meeting of about 40 countries on Thursday, including Japan, Australia, Canada, and some Gulf states; neither the US nor Iran were invited. In a statement after the meeting, Cooper noted that Iran is trying to "hold the global economy hostage" with the Strait of Hormuz. All parties issued a unified call for "immediate and unconditional reopening of the Strait" and to respect the principles of freedom of navigation and international maritime law. The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization stated at the meeting that the strait cannot be reopened by force, urgently requiring diplomatic engagement, practical and neutral solutions, and coordinated international action.

Meanwhile, the rotating chairman of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Bahraini Foreign Minister Zayani, stated at the UN Security Council that the Council may vote on a relevant draft resolution on April 3, aimed at supporting a series of measures to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Zayani expressed hope to Security Council members that all sides would show a unified stance in the vote.

Macron Draws the Line: This Is Not Europe's War

During talks with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi this week, Macron explicitly rejected the option of militarily reopening the strait, calling it "unrealistic"—even the United States has not yet attempted a military offensive against the Strait of Hormuz. Macron also pointed out that US and Israeli military actions against Iran cannot "solve the Iranian nuclear issue in the long term." "They decided their actions alone; if they later complain that no one helped, they shouldn’t be surprised. These are not our actions," Macron said.

This position reflects Europe’s strategic stance in the current crisis. Refusing to join the conflict and refusing to "seize oil by force" is both a responsible political choice for European voters and a justified counteraction to Trump’s recklessness. However, as the impact of the blockade on the European economy deepens, this spectator attitude is gradually shifting towards proactive diplomatic engagement.

Kristina Kausch, a researcher at the German Marshall Fund, commented:

"In the short term, reopening the Strait of Hormuz has become the highest priority for Europe. Without US involvement, Europe has no intention of resolving the issue militarily, which means the incentive for Iran to continue the blockade needs to be reduced."

Latest reports show that on Thursday afternoon local time, the "CMA CGM Kribi" departed from waters near Dubai, headed towards Iran, and publicly announced that its owner was a French company. The ship sailed close to the Iranian coast, passing through the waterway between Qeshm Island and Larak Island, and broadcast its navigation status throughout the journey. This move has been widely interpreted as a deliberate gesture, intended to complete the passage entirely within Iran's monitoring scope. Notably, during the entire voyage, the ship publicly broadcast location information and did not employ any concealment or evasive measures.

Iran's Leverage: The Biggest Unknown of Diplomatic Mediation

The core challenge facing this multilateral effort lies in what price Iran is willing to demand in exchange for concessions. According to Bloomberg Economics analyst Antonio Barroso, Tehran may require the easing of economic sanctions as bargaining terms; its insistence that US and Israeli attacks must not happen again is nearly an unattainable demand. Reports indicate Iran is jointly drafting a protocol with Oman to monitor transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, the sustained crisis has produced spillover security effects in Europe. French authorities have arrested and prosecuted four individuals suspected of plotting bombing attacks, with targets believed to be near the Paris offices of Bank of America; the incident is seen as a potential retaliatory action linked to this war.

Economic Pressure: The Underlying Logic of Europe’s Forced Intervention

Europe's proactive diplomacy is driven by clear economic motivations. About a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and the blockade has pushed crude oil prices sharply higher, with European diesel prices reaching a four-year high. Analysts suggest Germany's economic growth this year could be halved as a result; Gulf region allies are suffering Iranian missile attacks, and the risk of domestic terror attacks in Europe is rising.

Japan imports nearly all its oil from the Middle East, and Sanae Takaichi and Macron share highly consistent positions on promoting ceasefire and de-escalation. According to Bloomberg Opinion, if the UK-hosted multilateral call avoids sinking into mere "talk," there’s a chance to bring more rational Western allies back into this region, which has lost its influence.

The ultimate hallmark of success will be providing Trump with a "step-down" path that does not rely on escalation by force. For now, diplomacy remains the only option on the table.

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