World’s largest shipowners’ organization: Awaiting technical guidance for passage through Hormuz, not recommended to leave without consultation with the US and Iran.
As the US-Iran ceasefire progresses, guidance on safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, and prospects for commercial vessel escort arrangements are unclear in the short term.
On April 8, Bloomberg reported that Jakob Larsen, Chief Security and Safety Officer of Bimco, the world’s largest shipping trade organization, said, “The shipping industry is currently waiting for the US and Iran to provide technical details on how to safely transit the Strait of Hormuz.” Bimco’s members account for 64% of global shipping tonnage, making its statements highly significant in the market.
Larsen also warned that leaving the Persian Gulf without prior coordination with the US and Iran “will face higher risks and is not recommended,” and could also create additional navigation safety hazards.
Before the implementation details of the ceasefire agreement are clarified, shipowners and shipping companies face a dilemma: they cannot confirm safe transit routes, nor can they accurately assess the costs and risks of being detained or detouring.
Escorting arrangements unlikely in the short term Risk of negotiation breakdown cannot be ignored
Larsen made it clear that “In the short term, national navies are not expected to provide escort for commercial vessels.” This means that until technical guidance is in place, commercial ships will have to judge transit risks themselves without military protection.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy transit routes, with large quantities of crude oil and liquefied natural gas exported through it. The lack of escort arrangements makes shipping companies face greater uncertainty when planning recent operations; related insurance costs and risk premiums may also remain high as a result.
Larsen also takes a cautious attitude toward the sustainability of the ceasefire agreement. He said, “There are too many uncertainties in the actual implementation of the ceasefire. If negotiations run into obstacles, hostile actions could resume.” He further pointed out that in such a scenario, “warships inside the Strait of Hormuz would be highly vulnerable to Iranian attacks.”
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