Zero revenue but a $26 billion valuation? The biggest AI bubble is actually in energy stocks!

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Forget the valuation bubble of tech stocks—the real AI-driven speculation frenzy may be gathering at an unprecedented speed in the energy sector. A group of energy companies with zero revenue has seen their total market capitalization soar to over $45 billion, solely supported by investor bets that tech giants will eventually pay for their yet-to-be-built power facilities.

The most eye-catching example of this craze is Oklo, a nuclear energy startup backed by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, the company’s stock price has surged about eight-fold so far this year, with its market capitalization reaching a staggering $26 billion, making it the largest U.S.-listed company without any revenue in the past 12 months.

Another zero-revenue company, Fermi, is equally hot. On its first day of trading earlier this month, the company was valued at around $19 billion, and its current market capitalization is still over $17 billion. According to Jay Ritter, a finance professor at the University of Florida, adjusted for inflation, only two zero-revenue companies in history have had a higher first-day market cap than Fermi.

This wave of speculation highlights the market’s extremely optimistic expectations for AI’s future energy demand. However, unlike tech giants with huge profits and the ability to weather industry volatility, these energy startups have almost no room for error. Should the AI craze cool off, their lack of actual revenue will leave them at risk of the steepest falls.

Betting on Nuclear’s Future: Startup Valuations Soar

Against the backdrop of soaring AI compute demand, investors are turning their attention to nuclear energy, especially small modular reactors (SMRs), capable of providing stable, large-scale power.

Oklo is the star of this racetrack, but its lofty valuation is built on a series of future possibilities. The company is developing SMRs that use liquid metal sodium as a coolant, but has not yet secured an operating license from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, nor signed any binding contracts with power customers. Wall Street analysts expect Oklo will not generate significant revenue until 2028.

This boom isn’t an isolated case. Other companies developing even smaller “micro-modular” nuclear reactors have also achieved high valuations. Nano Nuclear Energy, which went public last year, has seen its stock price double this year, reaching a market value above $2 billion. Terra Innovatum, which went public via SPAC merger last week, is already valued at over $1 billion. These companies share one thing in common: no revenue to date, but have already been feverishly embraced by capital markets.

Valuation Frenzy Spreads: From Natural Gas to Hydrogen

This AI-driven energy investment frenzy is not limited to nuclear. Fermi, supported by former U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry and run by Toby Neugebauer, plans to build up to 11 GW of generation capacity for data centers—a scale equivalent to the total capacity of New Mexico.

Although the company’s planned energy mix includes natural gas, nuclear, solar, and battery storage, so far it has only secured natural gas equipment sufficient to meet 5% of its total target, and, similarly, has no binding customer contracts. Notably, its over $17 billion market capitalization approaches that of Talen Energy, which already owns about 11 GW of operating generation assets.

Additionally, some companies generating partial revenue—but far from profitable—are also swept up in this frenzy. Nuclear SMR company NuScale Power’s stock has soared 155% this year, though it currently only earns some engineering and licensing fees from an SMR project in Romania. Similarly, hydrogen fuel cell company Plug Power, after years of languishing share prices, has surged 90% this year on the back of the AI concept, raising its market cap to $4.8 billion. According to Wall Street analysts surveyed by FactSet, neither company is expected to turn a profit before 2030.

History Repeats? Potential Risks Behind High Valuations

One possible reason investors are flocking to these speculative energy companies is that even already-profitable companies are priced sky-high. Fuel cell company Bloom Energy’s stock is up more than 400% so far this year, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 133. Nuclear fuel company Centrus Energy also has a forward P/E of 99. For investors seeking high returns, such lofty valuations may be pushing them toward startups with even greater imagination potential.

Commercial interest may help bring expensive or unproven technologies to maturity. But history from the class of zero or negligible revenue EV startups that went public in 2020 (such as Nikola, Fisker, and Lordstown) often ended not in takeoff, but in collapsing bubbles. That history shows many similar companies ultimately faded away.

For investors, the risks are obvious. If the AI boom proves to be a bubble, or if energy demand from AI growth falls short of expectations, these energy names—highly dependent on future projections—will face the greatest downside pressure. With no revenue safety net, they will be among the hardest hit.

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