Zhitu and Minimax are about to enter Hang Seng Tech and Stock Connect—The moment for AI to reshape Hong Kong stocks has arrived.

Zhitu and Minimax are about to enter Hang Seng Tech and Stock Connect—The moment for AI to reshape Hong Kong stocks has arrived.

Since the beginning of this year, the Hang Seng Tech Index has fallen by more than 10% and performed sluggishly. However, at the same time, the best-performing two new stocks in Hong Kong this year are precisely two AI large model companies—Knowledge Atlas (Zhipu) and MiniMax—both ranking as the top two IPO performers in the Hong Kong market since their listings in 2026.

The issue is, both companies are not yet included in the Hang Seng Tech Index. The reason is simple: they have been listed for too short a time, and have not yet met the inclusion criteria. Currently, Zhipu and MiniMax are both expected to pass the June review and be officially included in the Hang Seng Tech Index on June 8, 2026, with a combined weight of about 5%-7%.

According to Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Morgan Stanley analysts estimate in their latest research that if Zhipu and MiniMax were included in the Hang Seng Tech Index on their listing day, the index's decline since the beginning of the year would have narrowed from -12.6% to -7.6%.

However, the real stress test comes with the wave of unlocking from July: Zhipu's cornerstone investors' 5.83% of shares will be unlocked, MiniMax will unlock nearly 50% of shares, and the available shares will expand several times, putting the scarcity premium of their prices to a severe test.

Has the Hang Seng Tech Index "drifted away"?

The Hang Seng Tech Index has dropped double digits this year. On the surface, this is related to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the contraction of global risk appetite.

Analysts point out that, structurally, the index is currently comprised of 25.4% from e-commerce (Alibaba, Meituan, JD, Trip.com, Tongcheng), and 25.1% from automobile/new energy vehicles (BYD, Xiaomi, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Leapmotor), together more than 50%.

In other words, half the index's weight is actually consumption and mobility. Additionally, ByteDance's "absence effect" is still unfolding.

If Zhipu and MiniMax had joined earlier, the losses would be reduced by 5 percentage points

Analysts hypothesized: if Zhipu and MiniMax had been included in the Hang Seng Tech Index on January 9 (the first trading day), replacing the two smallest-weight constituent stocks—Kingdee International and Kingsoft—the index's total return since the beginning of the year would improve from -12.6% to -7.6%, an improvement of about 5 percentage points.

These 5 percentage points would basically offset the pullback around Chinese New Year (late-February) caused by ByteDance’s Doubao and DreamON going viral.

The meaning of this calculation is not just "if"—it points directly to an imminent reality: these two companies are about to be included.

June 8: Zhipu and MiniMax both join Hang Seng Tech Index

Currently, Zhipu and MiniMax are both expected to be formally included after the Hang Seng Tech Index's June review on June 8, 2026, with a combined weighting of about 5%-7%.

The Hang Seng Tech Index keeps 30 constituent stocks, each with a maximum weight of 8%. New entries mean some must exit. By rule, non-constituent stocks must rank 24th or higher to be included. Kingdee and Kingsoft, currently the smallest weights, are likely to be replaced.

Direct impact of inclusion is forced buying by passive funds. Current data show ETFs and passive products tracking the Hang Seng Tech Index amount to about USD 25 billion.

Based on a 5%-7% weighting, Zhipu and MiniMax together could attract about USD 1.25-1.75 billion in passive fund inflows.

Hong Kong Stock Connect opening: Zhipu in June, MiniMax waits for August

Aside from the Hang Seng Tech Index inclusion, another bigger capital channel is Hong Kong Stock Connect (southbound funds).

Morgan Stanley expects Zhipu to simultaneously join Hong Kong Stock Connect on June 8, 2026; MiniMax, due to its WVR (weighted voting rights) structure, must meet extra criteria—a listing of 6 months plus 20 trading days, an average daily market value of at least HKD 20 billion over the past 183 trading days, and a total turnover above HKD 6 billion during the period—so the earliest Stock Connect opening for MiniMax is expected on August 6, 2026.

The difference in timing reflects stricter governance scrutiny by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for dual-class shares companies.

How much capital can southbound funds bring?

The report systematically reviews major internet and tech companies' southbound holdings after joining Hong Kong Stock Connect. Data shows that, within six months of inclusion, southbound holdings rise to about 9% of relevant companies' free float; for companies with a small free float, the ratio is often higher.

Accordingly, two scenarios are forecasted:

Base case (southbound holdings reach 8%-9% of free float):

  • MiniMax: cumulative southbound net inflow of about HKD 18.4 billion within 180 days of inclusion, equivalent to about 12.8 days of its average daily turnover as of April 2026
  • Zhipu: cumulative southbound net inflow about HKD 18.6 billion, equivalent to about 10 days average daily turnover

Optimistic case (referencing Horizon Robotics and other small-float new stocks, southbound holdings rise to about 20%):

  • MiniMax: cumulative southbound net inflow about HKD 43.4 billion, equal to 30 days average daily turnover
  • Zhipu: cumulative southbound net inflow about HKD 43.9 billion, equal to about 23.5 days average daily turnover

Together, the two stocks would see about HKD 37 billion southbound funds in the base case, and nearly HKD 88 billion in the optimistic scenario.

Given the extreme scarcity of similar investment targets in the Hong Kong and A-share markets, the inflow of funds after the inclusion of these two stocks will support their prices and valuations, and stimulate broader market sentiment and participation by institutions and retail investors.

Unlocking is the real stress test

While expectations for capital inflow are optimistic, another aspect should not be overlooked.

Currently, both companies have very small free floats: Zhipu's true free float is only about 2.67%, MiniMax about 5.44%, with over 90% of shares in lockup. This means the current price is formed on extremely limited supply and has a notable liquidity premium.

There are two key time nodes:

First hurdle: July 7/8, 2026 (about 6 months post-listing) Zhipu’s cornerstone investors’ 5.83% shares will be unlocked; for MiniMax, about 44.29% of old shareholders (six-month lock-up) and 5.34% cornerstone shares (almost 50% of total shares) will be unlocked. By then, the market's tradable shares will suddenly expand multiple times, and supply-demand dynamics will reverse for the first time.

Second hurdle: January 2027 (about 12 months post-listing) Mainly affecting Zhipu—non-controlling shareholders' over 60% of shares will be unlocked, early investors and employees' cash-out demand will be released intensively.

At that time, market pricing logic will shift from "scarcity premium" back to fundamentals: revenue growth, narrowing losses, commercialisation effectiveness—all will become hard indicators.

Based on current financial data, both companies face plenty of pressure. Zhipu’s revenue in first half of 2025 was RMB 191 million, R&D spending RMB 1.594 billion, about RMB 8 spent on R&D for every RMB 1 of revenue; MiniMax’s revenue in first nine months of 2025 was USD 53.44 million, R&D spending USD 180 million, about USD 3.37 spent on R&D for every USD 1 of revenue.

Hong Kong IPO market is being reshaped by AI

The listings of Zhipu and MiniMax are not isolated incidents, but epitomize a larger structural transformation.

So far in 2026, total Hong Kong IPO financing has reached HKD 139 billion, about 50% of all 2025's total. Among this, IT sector IPO financing is HKD 54 billion, accounting for 39% of the total, not only surpassing IT’s HKD 40 billion in all of 2025, but also jumping from a 14% share in 2025. The semiconductor sector is particularly prominent, rising from 3% in 2025 to 21% of total.

In the IPO pipeline, among approximately 390 companies queued in Hong Kong, IT accounts for about 43%, healthcare for 22%, consumer goods for 13%.

Clear policy support lies behind this transformation. In September 2024, HKEX and CSRC lowered the minimum market value thresholds for Chapter 18C (specialist tech companies)—from HKD 6 billion to HKD 4 billion for commercialized companies, from HKD 10 billion to HKD 8 billion for non-commercialized firms, effective for three years. Meanwhile, HKEX and CSRC jointly launched the "Tech Company Pathway" (TECH), providing a dedicated fast-track and confidential submission option for AI and large model companies.

On the policy level, the 2025-26 budget earmarked HKD 10 billion to establish the Innovation and Technology Industry-Guided Fund, and set aside HKD 1 billion to found the Hong Kong AI Research Institute; the 2026-27 budget further established the "AI+ and Industrial Development Strategy Committee", making AI a core industry.

Hong Kong has become the world's first market to welcome IPOs of major large model companies, and the pipeline is still growing.

 

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The above is from Chasing Wind Trading Desk.

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