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Japan adds to budget without extra debt issuance, divergence between new export orders and customs export growth, El Niño poses meteorological shocks and geopolitical risk premium --- 0601 Macro Essentials

Japan adds to budget without extra debt issuance, divergence between new export orders and customs export growth, El Niño poses meteorological shocks and geopolitical risk premium --- 0601 Macro Essentials

``` 1. Fed dovish officials unexpectedly hawkish, but US-Iran easing reduces rate hike pricing, with December 2027 rate hike probability still dominant. Japan announces a ¥3 trillion additional budget, pledges no extra debt issuance, but fiscal expansion and energy shocks continue to support Japanese bond yields, and the market maintains expectations
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